Olduvai Theory

Just how bad can it really get? I see lots of people asking that question. Do I plan for Mad Max or can we come up with alternatives in time? How long can it last, this shortage, and what does that mean for me and mine in the long term? Are we all just overreacting?

 There’s a theory out there that might help you. Along with Hubbert’s Peak, there’s another I haven’t seen thrown around yet.

Olduvai.

Since I’m no great typist, I’ll piss off Wikipedia and borrow their entry for it.

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The Olduvai theory was first introduced by Richard C. Duncan, Ph.D. in 1989. He presented it in his paper, "The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge", at the Summit 2000 Pardee Keynote Symposia of the Geological Society of America, on November 13, 2000. The name is a reference to the Olduvai Gorge in Africa. The Olduvai theory provides a modern argument supporting the Malthusian catastrophe.

The Industrial Civilization is defined in Duncan's paper as the time from when energy production per capita rises above 30% of its peak to when it falls below 30% of its peak. The 30% point is currently 3.64 boe/c/yr (barrels of oil equivalent per capita per year). At the time of Duncan's paper, the peak was 11.15 boe/c/yr and occurred in 1979; however, since then energy use per capita has increased beyond that level, with the most recent year providing the current peak value of 12.12 boe/c/yr.

The part of the decline from 1979 to 1999 is called the Olduvai slope. The rest is predicted to occur in two stages:

The Olduvai slide (2000–2011) - 'may resemble the "Great Depression" of 1929 to 1939: unemployment, breadlines, and homelessness'

The Olduvai cliff (2012–2030) - 'I know of no precedent in human history.'

Although per capita energy consumption is now at an all-time high, world oil production per capita peaked in 1979. The paper does not mention that standards of living have nevertheless improved significantly since 1979 because energy-efficiency has increased, or that such increases would likely accelerate if energy became more scarce. Neither does it address the fact that during the oil shocks of the 1970s, total energy consumption (including oil, coal, gas, nuclear and renewables) was essentially flat despite a precipitous drop of 17% in crude oil production within a few years (as production of other sources increased to compensate for the reduction in oil supply), and that economic growth continued during this time and has continued robustly since.